Publications & Research Papers

"The Decision to Seed Hurricanes" (with R.A. Howard and J.E. Matheson), Science, Vol. 176, p. 1191-1202, 1972.

"Limitations, definitions, principles, and methods of risk assessment" Scientific and Technical Review, International Office of Epizootics, 1995. (Note: This paper contains a summary of the Mars planetary contamination assessment, described in more detail in 1974 publications listed below.)

"The Invariance Approach to the Probabilistic Encoding of Information" Ph. D. Thesis, Department of Operations Research, Stanford University, 1970.

"A Tutorial Introduction to Decision Theory," IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics SSC-4, 105-115, 1968

"The Trials and Tribulations of the Tribnian Situation: A Pilot Level Decision Analysis of Intelligence Resource Allocation," (with A.F. Grum and N.C. Williams), Research Report, Stanford Research Institute, 1972 (subsequently used as a text at the U.S Military Academy, West Point).

"Assessment of the Probability of Contaminating Mars," (with B.R. Judd and J.P. Pezier) Final Report to NASA, Contract NASW-2535, Stanford Research Institute, 1974.

"New Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Contaminating Mars," (with B.R. Judd and J.P. Pezier), Life Sciences and Space Research 13, p. 103-109, 1974.

"Planning Wildfire Protection for the Santa Monica Mountains," (with F. Offensend and C.N. Smart), Fire Journal 69, January 1975.

"A Methodology for Analyzing Emission Control Strategies," (with M.W. Merkhofer), Computers and Operations Research 3, p. 185-207, 1976. This article summarizes Chapter 13 of the National Academy of Sciences report, Air Quality and Stationary Source Emission Control, 1975, which National Academy Press has now posted on its website.

"Decision Analysis of Program Choices in Magnetic Fusion Energy Development," (with D.N. Stengel), Management Science 28, p. 276-288, 1982.

"Quantitative Analysis as a Basis for Decisions Under TSCA," TSCA's Impact on Society and Chemical Industry, Washington D.C.: American Chemical Society 1983.

Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process, (with committee), Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1983.

Disposal of Chemical Munitions and Agents, (with committee), Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1984.

"Risk Assessment and Acid Rain Policy: A Decision Framework that Includes Uncertainty," (with W.E. Balson), ACID RAIN: Economic Assessment, New York: Plenum Press, 1985.

Review of EPA's Risk Assessment Research Program, letter report to the EPA Administrator on behalf of the EPA Science Advisory Board, April 22, 1985.

"Risk Assessment: What It Is: How It Works," (with Terry Yosie), EPA Journal 13(9), November 1987.

"Analysis of Uncertainty and Reaching Broad Conclusions," Journal of the American College of Toxicology 7, 1988.

Improving Risk Communication, (with committee), Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1989.

Testimony, Hearing before the Subcommittee on Nuclear Regulation, Committee on Environment and Public Works, U.S. Senate: "Phosphate Slag Risk," pp. 61-63, 129-133, August 21, 1990

"Decision Analysis in Environmental Risk Management: Applications to Acid Deposition and Air Toxics," New Risks, New York: Plenum Press, 1990.

"Risk Analysis: Where Have We Been? Where Are We Going?" Risk Analysis 10(2), 1990.

"Do We Know Enough to Take a Risk-Based Approach?" EPA Journal 17(2), 1991.

"Risk Assessment for Ingested Inorganic Arsenic: A Review and Status Report," Environmental Geochemistry and Health 14, 59-62, 1992.

"Conclusion: Challenges for the Future," (summary of a conference on the health effects of gasoline) Environmental Health Perspectives Supplements 101 (Suppl. 6), 209-212, 1993.

Issues in Risk Assessment, (with committee), Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1993.

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment, (with committee), Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1994.

"The Value of Research on Health Effects of Ingested Inorganic Arsenic," (with F. Selker and T. Guardino), Arsenic Exposure and Health, W.R. Chappell et. al., eds., Northwood: Science and Technology Letters, 1994. (An expanded version of this paper with a new preface is included in Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: Theory and Practice, Second Edition, Dennis Paustenbach, editor, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 2002.)

Testimony, Hearing before the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, Committee on Commerce, U.S. House of Representatives: "Clean Air Act Amendments: Title lll - Hazardous Air Pollutants," pp. 85-91, June 29, 1995

"Use of Expert Judgment on Cancer Dose-Response: Probabilistic Assessment and Plans for Application to Dieldrin," Low-Dose Extrapolation of Cancer Risks: Issues and Perspectives, Stephen Olin et. al., eds, Washington, D.C.: International Life Sciences Institute Press, pp. 275-287, 1995.

"Limitations, Definitions, Principles, and Methods of Risk Analysis," Risk Assessment for Veterinary Biologicals, special issue, Office International des Epizooties, Scientific and Technical Review 14, 913-923, 1995.

Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society, (with committee), Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1996.

"Understanding and Managing Environmental Risk: An Overview for Concerned Citizens," A Talk for the Boise City Club, September 10, 1996

"Risk Perception Versus Performance Assessment Products: Improving the Balance for the Management of Nuclear Waste in the United States," Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management '96, C. Cacciabue and I. A. Papazoglou, eds, London: Springer, pp. 1777-1782, 1996

Testimony, Hearing before the Subcommittee on Workforce Protections, Committee on Education and the Workforce, U.S. House of Representatives: "Congressional Review Act on OSHA's Methylene Chloride Rule," April 16, 1997.

"Unresolved Problems of Radioactive Waste: Motivation for a New Paradigm," Physics Today, pp. 48-54, June 1997.

"Inorganic Arsenic: A Need and an Opportunity to Improve Risk Assessment," (with W. Chappell, B. Beck, K. Brown, R. Chaney, R. Cothern, K. Irgolic, I. Thornton, and T. Tsongas), Environmental Health Perspectives 105(10), 1061-67, 1997.

"Arsenic: past, present, and future considerations," (with H. Gibb and C. Abernathy), pp. 406-423, Arsenic: Exposure and Health Effects, Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Arsenic, C. O. Abernathy, R. L. Calderon, and W. R. Chappell, eds., London: Chapman-Hall, 1997.

"Risk Characterization: A Bridge to Informed Decision Making," (with Edward V. Ohanian, John A. Moore, John R. Fowle III, Gilbert S. Omenn, Steven C. Lewis, and George M. Gray), Workshop Overview, Fundamental and Applied Toxicology 39, 81-88, 1997.

"Message," Japanese Journal of Risk Analysis 8(2), ii, November 1997.

"Nuclear Waste Management: Shifting the Paradigm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety 59, 123-128, 1998.

"Informing the People's Discretion about Environmental Risks: Can This Challenge Be Met?" Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, PSAM 4, Proceedings of the 4th International Conference, 13-18 September 1998, New York City, A. Mosleh and R.A. Bari, eds., New York: Springer-Verlag, 1998.

"Risk Assessment Using the Taiwan Data Base: The Need for Further Research," Debate/Commentary: Arsenic and Human Health Risk Assessment, Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 4(5), 1051-1060, 1998.

"Principles for Conduct of Pest Risk Analysis: Report of an Expert Workshop," (with George M. Gray, Jon C. Allen, David E. Burmaster, Stuart H. Gage, James K. Hammitt, Stanley Kaplan, Ralph L. Keeney, Joseph G. Morse, Jan Nyrop, Alina Stahevitch, and Richard Williams), Risk Analysis 18(6), 773-780, 1998.

"A Perspective on Nuclear Waste," Risk Analysis 19(4), 745-752, 1999.

Book Review of The Greening of Industry: A Risk Management Approach, John D. Graham and J.K. Hartwell, eds., Journal of Risk Research, 2(2),181-183, 1999.

"Rethinking Geologic Disposal of High-Level Nuclear Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel," presented at the Landau Network-Centro Volta UNESCO Forum, Nuclear Disarmament, Safe Disposal of Nuclear Materials, or New Weapons Developments? Where Are the National Laboratories Going? Lake Como, Italy, July 2-4, 1998; Vol. 8 of the series, Science for Peace, UNESCO Venice Office, Venice, Italy: Regional Office for Science and Technology, Europe, 1999.

"Reassessment of human cancer risk of aldrin/dieldrin," (with Donald E. Stevenson, Earl F. Walborg, Jr., Robert L. Sielkin, Jr., C.E. Ross, Alan S. Wright, Yong Xu, Lisa M. Kamendulis, and James E. Klaunig), Toxicology Letters 109, 123-186, 1999.

Book Review of "Science at EPA: Information in the Regulatory Process," by Mark R. Powell, Risk Analysis 21(2), 395-7, 2001.

Disposition of High-Level Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel: The Continuing Societal and Technical Challenges, (with committee), Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 2001.

"Performance Confirmation for the Candidate Yucca Mountain High-Level Waste Nuclear Waste Repository" (with John Kessler, 10 other authors), Final Report (1003032), Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, December 2001.

Letter to Science, response to "Nuclear Waste: Yucca Mountain" by Rodney C. Ewing and Allison Macfarlane, Science 296: 659-660, 2002, dEbate, June 27, 2002.

"Reflections on the Red/Mis-Read Book, 20 Years After," Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, Special Issue on the National Research Council's Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process, 9(5):1145-1154, August 2003.

"A Discussion of Findings and Their Possible Implications from a Workshop on Bioterrorism Threat Assessment and Risk Management" (with Raymond Zilinskas and Bruce Hope), Risk Analysis 24(4):901-908, 2004.

"Comment on Influence Diagram Retrospective," (with Ronald A. Howard, James E. Matheson, Miley W. Merkhofer, Allen C. Miller), Decision Analysis 3(2): 117-119, 2006.

"Critical Considerations in Evaluating Scientific Evidence of Health Effects of Ambient Ozone: A Conference Report" (with Roger O. McClellan, Mark W. Frampton, Petros Koutrakis, William F. Donnell, Suresh Moolgavkar, Anne E. Smith, Richard L. Smith, and Mark J. Utell), Review Article, Report of a Workshop held at the University of Rochester, June 2007. Inhalation Toxicology 21(S2):1-36, 2009.

"A Review of Whole Animal Bioassays of the Carcinogenic Potential of Naphthalene," (with Kamal M Abdo, PhD; Janet M Benson, PhD; Alan R Dahl, PhD; John B Morris, PhD; Roger Renne, PhD; Hanspeter Witschi, MD), Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology, 51:S6-S14, 2008.

Letter Report to the Secretary, Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs, State of Massachusetts, from the Committee on Technical Input on the National Institute of Health's Draft Supplementary Risk Assessments and Site Suitability Analysis for the National Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratory, Boston University, Report from the National Research Council, National Academy Press (with committee), November 29 2007.

"Comments on the IRGC Framework for Risk Governance," Chapter 4 of Global Risk Governance: Concept and Practice Using the IRGC Framework, Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer, 2008.

"Energy Security for the Baltic Region," Chapter 12 of Global Risk Governance: Concept and Practice Using the IRGC Framework, Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer, 2008.

Technical Input on Any Additional Studies to Assess Risk Associated with Operation of the National Emerging Infectious Diseases Laboratory, Boston University: A Letter Report from the National Research Council (with committee), April 29, 2008.

Public Participation in Environmental Assessment and Decision Making, (with committee), Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 2008.

"What is the Scope of Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis 27(5), 1135-1136, 2008.

"Probability Theory and Consistent Reasoning," Commentary, Risk Analysis 30(3):377-380, 2010.

Comment on the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, RISK Newsletter, Third Quarter, 2010.

Continuing Assistance to the National Institutes of Health on Preparation of Additional Risk Assessments for the Boston University NEIDL, Three Letter Reports from the National Research Council (with committee), Phase 1: April 20, 2010; Phase 2: November 5, 2010; Phase 3: December 6, 2011.

Review of book by B. John Garrick, Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks, Risk Analysis 30(10):1623-1625, 2010.

"Uncertainties, Precaution, and Science: Focus on the State of Knowledge and How It May Change, Commentary" Risk Analysis 31(10):1526-1527, 2011.

"Risk and responsibility: rejoinder to the paper by Silvio Funtowicz and Roger Strand," Journal of Risk Research 14(8):1009-1015, 2011.

"Commentary" (on LPG gas transport risks), Risk Analysis 32(2):220-221, 2012.

Review of three books: Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow, Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein, Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness (revised and expanded edition), and Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature, Risk Analysis 32(7):1270-1272, 2012.

"Can Sisyphus Succeed? Getting U.S. High-Level Nuclear Waste into a Geological Repository," Risk Analysis 33(1):2-14, 2013.

Review of five books: Marc Gerstein, Flirting with Disaster: Why Accidents Are Rarely Accidental, Nancy G. Leveson, Engineering a Safer World: Systems Thinking Applied to Safety, Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail but Some Don't, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder, James Owen Weatherall, The Physics of Wall Street: A Brief History of Predicting the Unpredictable, Risk Analysis 34(2):391-396, 2014

"Public and Stakeholder Participation for Managing and Reducing the Risks of Shale Gas Development," (with Paul C. Srern, Thomas Webler, and Patrick Field), Environmental Science and Technology 48(15): 8388-8396, Special Issue on Shale Gas Development, August 5, 2014, Web Publication Date: April 29, 2014 (Policy Analysis), DOI: 10.1021/es405170k. Link to ACS website.

"Risks and Risk Governance in Unconventional Shale Gas Development," (with Mitchell J. Small and 17 other co-authors), Environmental Science and Technology 48(15): 8289-8297, Special Issue on Shale Gas Development, August 5, 2014, Web Publication Date: July 1, 2014 (Feature) DOI: 10.1021/es502111u Link to ACS website.

Health Product Risk Communication: Is the Message Getting Through? (with 10 Panel colleagues) Report of a Panel of the Council of Canadian Academies, June 2015.

"Whither Risk Assessment: New Challenges and Opportunities a Third of a Century After the Red Book," by Michael Greenberg, Bernard D. Goldstein, Elizabeth Anderson, Michael Dourson, Wayne Landis, and D. Warner North, Risk Analysis 35(11):1959-1968, 2015

Review of five books: Alex Epstein, The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels, Kenneth P. Green, Abundant Energy: The Fuel of Human Flourishing, William Nordhaus, The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World, Gernot Wagner and Martin Weitzman, Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet, Dale Jamieson, Reason in a Dark Time: Why the Struggle Against Climate Change Failed - and What It Means to Our Future, Risk Analysis 35(12):2221-2227, 2015

"Introduction to Special Issue on Air Pollution Risks," by D. Warner North, Risk Analysis 36(9)1688-1692, 2016.

"Decision Analysis and Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Decision Support," Chapter 41, Handbook on Uncertainty Quantification, Springer International Publishing, Switzerland, R. Ghanem et al., eds., DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-11259-6_41-1, 2016.

"Space Weather: Introducing a Survey Paper and a Recent Executive Order," Risk Analysis 37(2), 203-204, 2017.

Mega-Review: Causality Books. Louis Anthony Cox, Jr., Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis, Judea Pearl and Dana MacKenzie, The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect, Judea Pearl, Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference, Risk Analysis 37(7):1647-1654, 2019.

Commentary, on "Should health risks of air pollution be studied scientifically?" by Louis Anthony Cox, Jr., Global Epidemiology March, 2020. Available via link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloepi.2020.100021.

"Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments, and Embracing Ongoing Challenges," by Michael Greenberg, Anthony Cox, Vicki Bier, Jim Lambert, Karen Lowrie, Warner North, Michael Sigrist, and Felicia Wu, special 40th anniversary issue, Risk Analysis 40: S1, 2113-2127, November 2020. Available free online to Jan. 31, 2020

"Risk Analysis, Decision Analysis, Causal Analysis, and Economics: A Personal Perspective from More Than 40 Years Experience," special 40th anniversary issue, Risk Analysis 40: S1, 2178-2190. November 2020. Available free online to Jan. 31, 2020

## Global Climate Change Two papers are included here, one an unpublished manuscript prepared in 1990 based on the EPA Science Advisory Board review of two reports being prepared at that time by EPA for the U.S. Congress, and the other a publication co-authored with S.H. Schneider for the proceedings of a conference in October, 2004 in Stuttgart, Germany. The interested reader is invited to compare the two papers. See also the 2015 Review of five books for Risk Analysis listed above.

--- Public Participation in Environmental Assessment and Decision Making National Research Council, National Academy Press. 322 pages, 2008

Disposition of High-Level Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel: The Continuing Societal and Technical Challenges National Research Council, National Academy Press. 212 pages, 2001.

Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: Theory and Practice Dennis J. Paustenbach, Editor. Hardcover, 1200 pages. Publisher: John Wiley & Sons; ISBN: 0471147478

Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society National Research Council, 1996

Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment National Research Council, 1994

Improving Risk Communication National Research Council, 1989

Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process National Research Council, 1983 .